Better forecasts of dissolved oxygen in the Northern Gulf of Mexico



Team Lead: Dr. John Harding
Chief Scientist, Northern Gulf Institute
Stennis Space Center
jharding@ngi.msstate.edu


Team Members

The long-term goal of this aspect of the testbed is the evaluation, and transition to operations, of a coupled, biogeochemical/physical model capable of forecasting the real-time evolution of shelf ecosystem processes.

The initial shelf hypoxia activities provide the challenges of a case study to the cyberinfrastructure team to aid the design and development of the super-regional testbed.

The initial efforts of the shelf hypoxia modeling team focuses on the evaluation of the impact of several basin model boundary conditions on shelf model nowcasting and forecasting of the initiation and evolution of synoptic scale hypoxic events in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Selected circulation components of this initial system will transition to serve as a baseline operational capability providing input for real-time Coast Guard search and rescue operations, harmful algal bloom tracking, and oil spill response applications in the region.

Shelf Hypoxia Testbed progress report.

HYPOXIA in the Gulf of Mexico
The largest hypoxic zone currently affecting the United States, and the second largest hypoxic zone worldwide, is the northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River.

Hypoxia, or low oxygen, is an environmental phenomenon where the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the water column decreases to a level that can no longer support living aquatic organisms. Hypoxic areas, or "Dead Zones," have increased in duration and frequency across our planet's oceans since first being noted in the 1970s.

A comprehensive website of information, research, data and resources about hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico has been developed by Dr. Nancy Rabalais and her research group at the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON):
http://www.gulfhypoxia.net/Overview/

What causes hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico?

Major events leading to the formation of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico include:
1.    Freshwater discharge and nutrient loading of the Mississippi River
2.    Nutrient-enhanced primary production, or eutrophication
3.    Decomposition of biomass by bacteria on the ocean floor
4.    Depletion of oxygen due to stratification

Flash animation depicting this process

Here is an EPA Hypoxia fact sheet published in September 2011 with more general information about the issue.